Is a Megaquake Due Soon?
I was talking with some of my University colleagues a while ago, and, in the course of conversation I mentioned my prediction that maybe some time soon there would be a megaquake in Indonesia and that it would be in the vicinity of 9.5, and, would virtually split one of the Indonesian islands into two.
I backed up my prediction with the facts that there is far too much volcanic and seismic activity across the archipelago in recent months and that this would eventually cause a massive movement in the tectonic plates. Interestingly, today I was reading an article in the Antara News that partly backs up my prediction:
On Wednesday afternoon a new 5.9 magnitude earthquake hit the Indian Ocean off the western coast of Sumatra, the Indonesian Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (MGA) told RIA Novosti.
The epicenter was at a depth of 57 km in the Indian Ocean, 74 km to the southwest of Bengkulu, the capital of the province with the same name, said Mr Jajat from the MGA. The earthquake caused panic in a number of cities in the western part of Sumatra but did not result in damage or casualties.
Last year, Bengkulu Province was the world`s indisputable leader in the number of registered earthquakes.
A total of 694 shocks with a magnitude of over 4.6 on the Richter scale were registered there in the first five months of the year alone.
Luckily, none of these compared with a 7.3 magnitude earthquake that killed almost a hundred people, and left hundreds injured there in 2000.
However, less than a month ago, two powerful earthquakes rattled the neighboring West Sumatra Province, killing over 70 people. The shocks destroyed or damaged more than 9,000 buildings and injured about 200 people.
They were felt in neighboring Singapore and Malaysia, where people had to be evacuated from a number of office buildings.
Indonesian experts are worried that after the earthquake off the coast of Aceh Province on Sumatra`s northwestern tip in December 2004 (it was the world`s strongest in the past 40 years, and the subsequent tsunami killed hundreds of thousands in 12 Indian Ocean countries), the seismic activity center has been gradually moving to the southwest, where Jakarta, the capital with a multi-million population is located.
“We think that the next quake may take place in the Jambi Province (between West Sumatra and Jakarta) but do not want to publicize this for fear of causing panic,” a source from the MGA told RIA Novosti after the earthquakes in West Sumatra.
The shocks in Bengkulu confirmed his forecast, at least geographically – this province is even closer to Jakarta than Jambi.
At a seminar in Jakarta, deputy head of the Indonesian Academy of Sciences (LIPI) Jan Sopaheluwakan called Aceh and West Sumatra the most tsunami-prone areas in Indonesia.
He warned that an enormous tsunami might crash onto shores at any time.
The Indonesian national news agency ANTARA quoted him as saying: “The possibility of tsunami happening in West Sumatra is quite great and it may only be a question of time because according to the findings of scientific studies, seismic energy in the
area is building up.”
“Six to seven thousand earthquakes with a magnitude of over 4 on the Richter scale, or almost 20 per day, are registered in Indonesia every year,” RIA Novosti was told earlier by Mr Suhardjono, head of the MGA earthquake department.
He specified that from 70 to 100 shocks are felt by people and may result in material damage, whereas two quakes that can cause severe destruction are Indonesia`s average for a year.
Earthquakes have been rocking the world`s largest archipelago for about 50 million years – it is part of the Pacific Ring of Fire (powerful tectonic fault).
The plate forming the floor of the Indian Ocean moves beneath the Asian plate, of which Sumatra is part, at about the same speed as human fingernails grow. Every now and then, the accumulated pressure is released into underground shocks of colossal magnitude.